Christmas dinner set to value much less this yr

DEC 16 – Falling turkey and Brussels sprout costs imply Christmas dinner will value rather less on the grocery store checkout this yr.

The value of Brussels sprouts has fallen by 12%, whereas a 10lb (4.55kg) frozen turkey will value you £1.21 lower than it did final yr, analysis for the BBC suggests.

But digging deeper we found root greens have gone up in value this yr, after moist climate delayed the planting season.

When all of the trimmings are totted up, a household Christmas is about to value £31.66 in 2024, down from final yr’s determine of £32.18. It displays meals costs rising at a slower fee up to now yr, as UK inflation has eased.

The annual change in value for merchandise throughout Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons, Aldi and Lidl had been measured by Retail monitoring platform Assosia.

The crown of the Christmas feast, the turkey, has fallen in value by 6% this yr, in accordance with this knowledge.

Tom Copas, managing director of Copas Turkeys in Cookham, Berkshire, stated the worth of turkeys had begun to stabilise after a few “incredibly turbulent” years that had pushed up the price of rearing his birds.

“Hence we’re seeing incremental changes in prices year on year, rather than dramatic ones,” added Mr Copas, whose household has been rearing turkeys since 1957.

However, Mr Copas says he’d seen slower gross sales and extra demand for smaller turkeys this yr, maybe indicating prospects had been tightening their belts.

“It’s possibly people are trying to keep the overall basket spend down.”

Brussels sprouts got here in at 12p cheaper for a 500g bag in comparison with final yr.

Hot summers and sudden chilly snaps of the earlier two years had made issues arduous for producers, says John Inglis, senior business supervisor at ESG Drysdale, one of many UK’s largest sprout producers.

But he says this yr has seen us return “back to normality” after “a couple of tricky seasons” and sprouts are thriving once more.

Root greens had been behind the most important value modifications in our Christmas store.

Maris Piper potatoes have seen a whopping 26% enhance, with a typical 2kg bag up from £1.58 to £1.99.

Tracy Bush, co-director of Provenance Potatoes in Kent, says poor climate has had so much to do with the worth of spuds going up in recent times.

“We’ve had a particularly wet spring so planting was difficult for any root crops, and then the autumn when crops are lifted and harvested, that was also very difficult,” she says.

Carrot farmer Rodger Hobson says the identical moist climate delayed this yr’s carrot planting season. Last yr, the climate was so unhealthy that supermarkets needed to import carrots. This yr, they’ve gone up by 13.4% to 69p per kilo.

But Mr Hobson says he wouldn’t be stunned if “when it comes to Christmas week they’ll be down to 20p a kilo”.

This is as a result of carrots are sometimes chosen as “loss leaders” in supermarkets. They’re offered at a loss to draw prospects in to spend on extra worthwhile gadgets.

Ged Futter is a retail specialist who was a purchaser for Asda. He says supermarkets drastically scale back their costs within the week earlier than Christmas.

“Every year they do the same thing,” he says, noting that supermarkets normally combat for purchasers with bargain “potatoes, carrots, parsnips, Brussels spouts”.

Mr Hobson says perishable gadgets make for good loss leaders as a result of prospects can’t stockpile them when they’re low cost. If supermarkets diminished the worth of long-life gadgets like baked beans, consumers could be tempted to purchase their yr’s provide in December, he says.

While loss-leaders are good for consumers, Mr Futter careworn these below-cost costs “don’t show the true cost to the farmer” and might generate numerous meals waste.

“People think that food is cheap to produce – that’s not true.”

This yr value rises weren’t confined to the primary meal – the price of Christmas desserts additionally went up.

Christmas pudding is 11% costlier than in 2023, and mince pies are up by 5%, in accordance with Assosia’s analysis.

Jessica White, the proprietor of Meg Rivers artisan bakery, says: “Our costs have indeed gone up of ingredients, packaging, wages and like everyone – electricity.” But she says her firm had chosen to not put costs up this yr.

They have already offered out of Christmas puddings and have needed to make extra to fulfil the ready listing, she says. “We make more and more each year and don’t notice a drop in demand.”

BBC News additionally regarded into how the price of a Christmas dinner would possibly range relying on the place you store.

We in contrast costs on the web sites of the UK’s high 5 supermarkets – Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons and Aldi.

Our snapshot from sooner or later suggests Aldi was the most cost effective grocery store for a fundamental listing of Christmas necessities, at round £24.30.

Asda was second least expensive at £28.22, adopted by Morrisons and Sainsbury’s.

Tesco was most costly at £36.51. Last yr, our research suggested Morrisons was the most costly, with Tesco third.

While we tried to search out equal gadgets throughout all 5 supermarkets, there are some small variations in product sizes or sorts. So the price of your Christmas dinner would possibly range between supermarkets and the gadgets you select.

Prices may also range the nearer we get to Christmas as grocery store competitors turns into much more fierce.

Our BBC evaluation shouldn’t be straight in contrast with the worth rise figures from retail evaluation agency Assosia as we each use a barely totally different basket.

Start with a funds: Plan forward and add up hidden bills, like tin foil for roasting a turkey.

• Write a meals listing: Decide in your prerequisites and what you may not miss.
• Bargain hunt: Look out for on-line affords in addition to yellow sticker gadgets which have been diminished.
• Use your freezer: Christmas meals that freeze nicely embody butter, meat joints and a few cheeses like cheddar.
• Join up with family and friends: This means you should purchase greater pack sizes, which are sometimes higher worth.

By BBC